Transition Economies: The Challenge of Decarbonization and Development

2 September 2025

The drive to decarbonize industry demands practical policies, investment, and realigned supply chains across Europe. Investors, operators, and policymakers now balance competitiveness with the urgent need to cut emissions while protecting jobs.

Energy, materials, and food systems each pose different technological and cultural challenges that must be navigated in the coming decade. This overview highlights priorities, practical levers, and contested trade-offs leading into “A retenir :”

A retenir :

  • Scale-up of renewables for industrial electricity supply
  • Material circularity and higher recycling rates across sectors
  • Behavioral shifts reducing demand for high-carbon products

Decarbonizing heavy industry: steel, power systems, and grid integration

Building on the policy priorities above, heavy industry must combine technology and system planning to cut emissions rapidly. Investment choices today will define industrial geography, jobs, and national security for decades to come.

Electrification and hydrogen pathways for primary industries

This subsection links to the H2 by detailing electrification and hydrogen as leading decarbonisation pathways for steel and chemicals. Hydrogen-based direct reduction and electrified furnaces require abundant renewable electricity and coordinated grid expansion.

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Sector Emission role Key pathway
Steel ~7% global CO₂ emissions Hydrogen DRI, CCS, scrap steel
Plastics High oil/gas feedstock dependency Chemical recycling, bio-based feedstock
Paper Energy intensive drying Energy efficiency, biomass, electrification
Food (meat & milk) High methane and nitrous oxide Feed changes, diet shifts, alternatives

Selon IEA, electrification will need coordinated network investments and flexible demand and storage solutions. Major utilities and grid operators like RTE and Enedis must plan capacity alongside industry demand.

Public and private finance must align with industrial planning, combining grants, loans, and carbon pricing to de-risk projects. This alignment will set the stage for material and circular strategies discussed next.

Green policy levers:

  • Public procurement for low-carbon steel and cement
  • Targeted investment in hydrogen electrolysers and storage
  • Grid upgrades and strategic interconnectors for renewables

Material substitution and circular economy for plastics and paper

Following industry decarbonisation, materials supply and reuse determine residual emissions and resource security. Circular strategies reduce feedstock demand and reshape industrial value chains in ways that matter for both incumbents and newcomers.

Plastics: bio-based feedstock, chemical recycling, and policy

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This H3 links directly to material substitution by assessing plastics alternatives and recycling ambitions. Selon European Commission, policy is shifting toward reuse, recyclability, and reduced single-use items across the EU market.

Many oil majors and petrochemical groups still plan capacity expansions despite circular pledges, creating tension between short-term profit motives and long-term decarbonisation. TotalEnergies and other firms face choices on feedstock and downstream investments.

Policy instruments must combine regulation, deposit-return systems, and industrial support for chemical recycling to close loops at scale. These levers will be essential before substitution becomes widespread in packaging and construction.

Paper, fibres, and the reuse economy

This subsection situates paper within circular material strategies linking forestry, recycling, and new biorefineries. Selon CEPI, Europe already recycles a high share of paper, but further shifts require careful land and biodiversity management.

Item EU figure / trend Implication
Paper recycling rate ~72% in 2017 Strong basis for circularity
Plastic packaging recycling ~40% collected for recycling Need for chemical and design innovations
Biorefineries Growing Scandinavian investments New high-value fibre markets
Material substitution CLT timber growth in construction New supply chain and standards work

Industry leaders like ENGIE, EDF, and Veolia can enable circular projects through energy services, waste processing, and logistics partnerships. Their roles are decisive for city-scale material loops and industrial symbiosis.

Materials strategy checklist:

  • Design for recyclability across product lifecycles
  • Investment in local chemical recycling plants
  • Standards harmonization for biobased materials
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Food systems and behaviour: reducing emissions in meat and dairy

Following material shifts, diets and food systems determine a large share of agricultural emissions and land use pressures. The social dimension of diets is crucial to any credible decarbonisation pathway for meat and milk.

Technological fixes versus dietary change

This H3 links dietary choices with technological options such as feed additives and methane vaccines for cattle. Selon research, feed innovations can lower enteric methane but rarely eliminate it completely.

Cultured meat and plant-based alternatives are scaling in markets, drawing investment from venture capital and established firms like Danone and large processors. Market shifts may reshape rural livelihoods and trade patterns.

« I shifted procurement to plant-based proteins to reduce scope three emissions and respond to customers »

Alex P.

Justice, rural livelihoods, and practical transition measures

This H3 situates social justice and farmer livelihoods within decarbonisation debates, emphasizing the need for transitional support and fair markets. Selon FAO and many NGOs, just transition measures are essential for rural resilience.

Policy tools include targeted subsidies, retraining programmes, and public procurement that rewards low-carbon animal products or plant-based alternatives. BNP Paribas and other financiers can offer transition finance products.

« As a dairy farmer I adapted feeding regimes while exploring cooperative markets for oat-based alternatives »

Sofia B.

Policy and practice levers:

  • Public procurement favoring low-carbon protein options
  • Transition funds for farmers and rural economies
  • Standards for lifecycle emissions in food labels

« We piloted green steel procurement and learned about supply chain verification hurdles »

Marie N.

« Carbone 4 helped us model scenarios that made the investment case clearer »

J. M.

Source : European Commission, « A European Strategy for Plastics in a Circular Economy », European Commission, 2018 ; IEA, « The Future of Petrochemicals: Towards more sustainable plastics and fertilisers », IEA, 2018.

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